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It
is belief that persistence leads to success sometimes.
It is never true for gambling and games of chance in
general. Actually, in gambling persistence leads to
inevitable bankruptcy. It is a game of probability.
Theory of probability is the underlying
theory for all
games of chance. In short and without difficult math it
is explained below. One of the important steps needed to
make when considering the probability of two or more
events occurring. It Is to decide whether they are
independent or related events.
Mutually Exclusive vs. Independent
It
is not uncommon for people to confuse the concepts of
mutually exclusive events and independent events.
Mutually exclusive event
If
event A happens, then event B cannot, or vice-versa. The
two events "it was full moon on Monday" and "it was not
a full moon on Monday" are mutually exclusive events.
When calculating the probabilities for exclusive events
you add the probabilities.
Independent events
The outcome of event A has no effect on the outcome of
event B. Such as "It was a full moon on Monday" and "I
met accident at work ". When calculating the
probabilities for independent events multiply the
probabilities. In other word it means what is the chance
of both events happening bearing in mind that the two
were unrelated.
If
A and B events are mutually exclusive, they cannot be
independent. If A and B events are independent, they
cannot be mutually exclusive.
What happens if we want to throw 1 and 6 in any order?
This now means that we do not mind if the first die is
either 1 or 6. But with the first die, if 1 falls
uppermost, clearly it rules out the possibility of 6
being uppermost, so the two Outcomes, 1 and 6, are
exclusive. One result directly affects the other. In
this case, the probability of throwing 1 or 6 with the
first die is the sum of the two probabilities, 1/6 + 1/6
= 1/3.
The probability of the second die being favorable is
still 1/6 as the second die can only be one specific
number, a 6 if the first die is 1, and vice versa.
Therefore the probability of throwing 1 and 6 in any
order with two dice is 1/3 x 1/6 = 1/18. Note that we
multiplied the last two probabilities, as they were
independent of each other.
The probability of throwing a double three with two dice
is the result of throwing three with the first die and
three with the second die. The total possibilities are,
one from six outcomes for the first event and one from
six outcomes for the second, Therefore (1/6) * (1/6) =
1/36th or 2.77%.
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