Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Asante Samuel is playing a high-stakes game of poker with his future in New
England. The Patriots are prepared to call his bluff. Samuel is reportedly
unhappy with the status of contract talks between he and the Patriots as the
two sides negotiate a multi-year deal to keep the 26-year-old cornerback in
New England. The Patriots put the franchise tag on Samuel in February with
the idea that they'd keep him around for one more year and give themselves
time to work on a long-term extension. If he signs the one-year tender,
Samuel will make $7.8 million in 2007 - the average of the five highest-paid
cornerbacks - but if he's genuinely unhappy, the Patriots' plan could
backfire. Chances are Samuel will sign the tender - especially since he'd be
making more than twice as much in one season than he made in his first four
seasons with the Patriots. If not, he has other options. He could hold out
until Week 10, thereby accruing another year toward free agency, or demand a
trade and see if the Patriots are willing to ship him elsewhere in exchange
for valuable draft picks, much like they did with Deion Branch last
September. Samuel's absence would create a major hole on their defense,
though the Patriots have issues to address in the secondary regardless of
whether or not he returns in 2007. Rodney Harrison will be 35 in December
and Eugene Wilson missed 12 games last year with a hamstring injury. Outside
of Ellis Hobbs, the Patriots don't have another cornerback capable of
starting on a full-time basis if Samuel forces his way out of town. Since
they spent most of their money to fill holes at wide receiver, linebacker
and running back, the Patriots will likely use this year's draft to build
depth in the defensive backfield. New England has 10 picks in the upcoming
draft, including two in the first round at 24th and 28th overall. The first
pick - obtained from Seattle in exchange for Branch - could be used on a
cornerback or safety. There's substantial depth at each position, so
there'll be plenty of players available when the Patriots are on the clock.
Expect to see several defensive backs drafted early - namely Louisiana State
safety Laron Landry, Michigan cornerback Leon Hall, Florida safety Reggie
Nelson and Pittsburgh cornerback Darrelle Revis. Landry and Hall figure to
be top 20 picks while there's a chance Revis and Nelson could drop in the
pecking order depending on draft-day trades or other events that shake up
the board. Assuming the Patriots stay at No. 24, they might have interest in
Texas cornerback Aaron Ross - if he's still available - or his former
college teammate, safety Michael Griffin. Ross, who stands at 6-foot-1 and
weighs 179 pounds, finished with six interceptions in his senior season -
his first year as a full-time starter - and won the Thorpe Award as the
nation's top defensive back. Griffin is another solid prospect who ran a
4.45 in the 40-yard dash at this year's NFL scouting combine. He and Miami's
Brandon Meriweather might be the two most underrated pass defenders in the
draft, though with Meriweather's legal problems and lack of discipline on
the field, the Patriots might be more interested in the 220-pound Griffin,
who many say hits like a safety and runs like a corner.
Cornerback Chris Houston of Arkansas and Fresno State cornerback Marcus
McCauley should also be available late in the first round - perhaps even
with the 28th pick, allowing the Patriots to use their first selection on
another position and wait until the end of the round to scoop up a defensive
back.

The Patriots drafted two players from Fresno State in 2005 and Bill
Belichick has a strong relationship with Bulldogs coach Pat Hill, so they'll
likely take a look at McCauley before making their decision. Houston - a
5-foot-11 underclassmen - left Arkansas after his junior year and is labeled
as a ball-hawk with excellent coverage skills. He ran a 4.32 at the combine
and has no trouble stopping the run.

Belichick is also close with Florida football coach Urban Meyer, but the
Gators' top defensive prospect - Nelson - is projected as a mid-round pick,
meaning the Patriots would probably have to trade up to get him. Unless they
have a player they absolutely crave, they're likely to stay put and use each
of their first-round picks to stockpile their depth.

The Patriots don't have a second-round pick, so if they want a quality
defensive back, they'll have to act fast, though it's worth noting that the
only former first-round pick in their secondary is nickel back Chad Scott.
California cornerback Daymeion Hughes and Auburn cornerback David Irons are
projected third-round picks who could be available with New England's 91st
overall selection.

The Patriots need more depth on defense whether or not Samuel stays, so his
current contract talks won't change their plans on draft day. Even if he's
traded, it probably won't happen in the next 20 days, so the Patriots will
enter the draft with Samuel penciled in as their Week 1 starter. He's
gambling with his future and - for now - the Patriots hold all the cards.