Sunday, January 07, 2007

It is eminently sensible to teach mathematics with reference to everyday
activities in the real world, whether that be the probability of a certain
card being dealt, a winning ticket being bought in the National Lottery, or
of a particular bus arriving within the next five minutes. I recall that I
was taught probability with reference to the outcome of one coin being
tossed, then by two coins being spun simultaneously, followed by the outcome
with one die and then two dice being rolled.
The maxim that there are lies, damned lies and statistics holds true today
largely because we do not question statistics and use them in a careless
manner. Indeed, the apparent fact that one is more likely to be killed from
a part falling from an aeroplane than winning the lottery (your report,
January 4) is a case in point. The probability of winning the National
Lottery on Saturday with the It is eminently sensible to teach mathematics
with reference to everyday activities in the real world, whether that be the
probability of a certain card being dealt, a winning ticket being bought in
the National Lottery, or of a particular bus arriving within the next five
minutes. I recall that I was taught probability with reference to the
outcome of one coin being tossed, then by two coins being spun
simultaneously, followed by the outcome with one die and then two dice being
rolled. The maxim that there are lies, damned lies and statistics holds true
today largely because we do not question statistics and use them in a
careless manner. Indeed, the apparent fact that one is more likely to be
killed from a part falling from an aeroplane than winning the lottery (your
report, January 4) is a case in point. The probability of winning the
National Lottery on Saturday with the purchase of one ticket can easily be
shown to be one in 13,983,816. If the probability of being killed on that
same day by a piece falling from a plane is, indeed, less at one in 10
million then I would expect to hear of five or six such deaths in the UK out
of a population of between 50 and 60 million. I suspect that will not be the
case since the probability no doubt relates to possibility of such a fate at
the end of one's life, rather than on just one day, which suggests that
lessons include a detailed examination of apples and pears as well as cards
and dice.